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Daily Insights

Fed minutes. Traders will be looking for clues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) intentions for the terminal size and asset mix of its ~$4.5 trillion balance sheet when the minutes of last month’s monetary policy meeting are released at 2:00EST. Though not expected to return to post-Financial Crisis levels (<$1 trillion) due to increased demand for currency, reserves, and other Fed liabilities, several Fed presidents have recently indicated they favor ending the balance sheet runoff by the end of 2019, maintaining reserves of ~$3.6 trillion.

Upbeat Housing Market Index kicks off string of related data. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for February was up for a second straight month with all sub-indexes rising, along with builder confidence. Recent data is encouraging, though growth in the overall housing market has not matched the broader economy. Up next is Thursday’s existing home sales for January.

Trimming our growth forecast. Economic data have consistently missed expectations recently as investors and Wall Street have struggled to quantify the impact of global trade and political risks. In response, economists have cut their fourth-quarter 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts, and we’ve trimmed our 2019 GDP forecast as well. On the LPL Research bloglater today, we’ll outline our case for slightly lower growth expectations this year, even though we believe the U.S. economic expansion is still intact.

NEW Street View video. LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch discusses fundamentals supporting GDP, inflation, employment, and corporate profits. Watch and share the video now.

Monitoring the Week Ahead

Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar



  • Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16)
  • Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary Dec)
  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary Feb)
  • Markit US Services PMI (Preliminary Feb)
  • Markit US Composite PMI (Preliminary Feb)
  • Leading Index (Jan)
  • Existing Home Sales (Jan)
  • Germany CPI Report (Jan)
  • Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary Feb)
  • Japan CPI Report (Jan)


  • Germany GDP Report (Q4 2018)
  • Eurozone CPI Report (Jan)


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Index data obtained via FactSet


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